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Market Opening - An Overview
India’s shrimp industry is expected to see its sales grow by about 5% YoY in FY24, driven by higher demand from China, according to Crisil Ratings. The demand from China will help exports to hit a high of about $5.3 billion and the growth will be largely led by volumes, the rating agency said, adding, the operating margin is estimated to rebound to 7.5% as costs decline.
The rating agency said that the continued rising demand is likely to encourage shrimp processor to expand capacities. This is based on an analysis of 98 shrimp exporters rated by Crisil Ratings that also accounted for two-thirds of the industry revenue, indicates as much.
The rating agency noted that India, Ecuador, and Vietnam are the top three suppliers of shrimp, while the US, the EU, and China are the top three consumers. India supplies about 70% of its produce to these three regions.
Indian shrimp producers were affected in FY23 due to headwinds. Extreme heat waves reduced produce and shortage of containers as well as higher logistics cost dented exports to the US and EU. Further, exports to China remained subdued amid continued lockdowns there. These factors helped Ecuador, one of India’s major competitors, to seize the lead in shrimp exports.
Moreover, due to the cost-competitiveness afforded by its relative proximity to the US and EU, Ecuador could supply the produce earmarked for China into the two key markets last fiscal, leading to a jump of about 25% in its exports, while India’s exports declined about 9% on a yearly basis.
However, a good production backed by normal weather and increasing demand from China, as its economy opens, will improve the revenue of Indian shrimp producers in FY24. Further, India’s shrimp exports to China are likely to cross $1.2 billion this fiscal compared with ~$0.8 billion in the last one. With logistics cost normalising, demand from the US and Europe is expected to rebound.
“Buyers from the US and Europe prefer shrimps processed in India because of better quality- and disease-control measures,” said Himank Sharma, Director, Crisil Ratings. Sharma added that as supply chains are restored, Indian exporters can replace Ecuadorian suppliers and regain their lost market share. Further, revenue is expected to grow by about 5% in fiscal 2024 on the back of 8-10% volume growth, despite reduction in realisations.
The operating margin of shrimp producers declined in the last fiscal due to low volume and higher input costs, but rupee depreciation capped the losses. However, the rating agency said that with volumes hitting record high this fiscal, input cost is likely to normalise, while realisation tapers. Further, as the decline in input costs is steeper than the drop in realisations, the shrimp producers’ margin is estimated to rise to about 7.5% this fiscal, according to Crisil Ratings.
As the shrimp producers are expecting the demand for their products to increase, they are expanding their capacities and they will add about 20% of their existing gross block this fiscal. Most of this expansion will happen on the back of higher revenue and adequate cash accrual, the rating agency said.
“The shrimp sector has displayed financial prudence for quite some time now. Hence, despite moderate debt addition over the medium term, credit profiles will remain strong,” said Nagarjun Alaparthi Associate Director, CRISIL Ratings. Alaparthui further said that the total outside liabilities to tangible net worth and interest coverage ratios will remain comfortable at about 0.5 time as on March 31, 2024, and eight times in fiscal 2024, respectively.
Finally, the rating agency said that any volatility in currency rates, geopolitical situation, global economic vulnerabilities, impact of climate on shrimp production or any regulatory changes will remain key monitorables.