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Indian shipping industry is expected to sustain its performance in the current fiscal, albeit with some moderation in operating margins, after the shipping companies had delivered a strong performance in FY2023 and achieved high operating margins, according to CareEdge Ratings. The outlook for the Indian shipping industry is ‘Stable’, primarily because the mid-size Tanker (both crude and product) and Dry Bulk segments account for the majority of vessel capacities, the rating agency said. These two segments are expected to perform well in the overall shipping industry, CareEdge Ratings noted.
Major tonnage of the Indian Shipping industry is contributed by the Tanker segment followed by Dry Bulk. The Indian shipping fleet is primarily dominated by crude and product tankers, accounting for the majority of the overall capacity at 57% and the share of dry bulk carriers stood at 16%, while container vessels make up approximately 5% of the fleet. Moreover, globally crude and product tankers are expected to outperform the container vessel segment, and given the dominance of these vessel types in the Indian fleet, the Indian Shipping Industry is expected to maintain a steady performance in FY24.
CARE Ratings noted that though the domestic tanker segment appears to be the best performing in the current business scenario, those Indian shipping companies engaged in the transportation of Russian crude oil to India could be at high risk of losing registration with societies such as Lloyd’s Register in London, as well as of losing insurance cover with international maritime insurers.
Further, the industry has more dominance in mid-tonnage carriers as compared to larger ones. The tanker segment has performed well in CY2022 and the first quarter of Q1CY2023. Charter rates for crude and product tankers have remained high. The rates for dry bulk carriers though moderated in CY2022 as compared to the peak attained in the second half of CY2021 owing to lower steel and iron ore trade from China, however, remained quite significant.
The rating agency said that the financial performance of the two largest domestic shipping companies, namely, Shipping Corporation of India Ltd and Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd, reflects a consistent improvement in revenues and profitability during FY23. CARE Ratings anticipates that these companies, assumed to be representative of the Indian shipping industry contributing around 45-50% of the country’s total tonnage, will demonstrate a stable business and financial risk profile in the coming year.
Challenges in container market
According to the rating agency, the container market has been upbeat in the past three years as Freight rates reached all-time highs in the second half of 2021, but fell and reached the pre-pandemic level. The rise in the freight rates during the pandemic led to an increase in orders for container ships in anticipation of sustenance in freight rate. The delivery of these vessels is expected in CY2024 and CY2025.
Further, high inflation and interest rates have already weakened the global economic outlook. The container markets, therefore, are expected to suffer from surplus vessel capacity in the coming years and the order book has continued to increase despite the moderation in demand and is now at a historical high of 7.5mn TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit), which is 29% of the overall global fleet size.
In addition, the world’s largest international shipping association, Baltic and International Maritime Council, said global container volumes are estimated to grow by 0.5%-1.5% in 2023 and 5.5%-6.5% in 2024 to reach ~185 million TEU in 2024. On the supply side, global container vessel capacity is set to expand by 8.3% in 2023 and 3% in 2024 translating into a significantly imbalanced demand-supply position in 2023, with some correction in 2024, according to CareEdge Ratings.